3 reasons why Bitcoin(BTC) won’t be ‘boring’ in September
While Bitcoin failed to close above the $60K psychological level on the weekly chart, the long-term holders (LTHs) continue to adopt a bullish strategy in 2024. Bitcoin’s $60,737 price closed below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) for the second week in a row, but over the past 24 hours, it has rebounded above $60,000. Several charts indicate that long-term holders remain unfazed by the current price action. Is a bullish breakout possible after August?
Bitcoin long-term holder realized cap hits $3 billion
Only three times has the Bitcoin price closed below the 200-day EMA in 2024. The chart below illustrates that July 4 marked the first bearish closing below the 200-day EMA.
In less than 10 days, the BTC/USD pair restored its previous position above the EMA. This time, the asset went back above the indication in less than 24 hours, indicating that bullish momentum is gradually building this week.
Bitcoin investors are separated into two categories: short-term holders (STHs) and long-term holders (LTHs). They have distinct trading methods and time preferences.
STHs are investors or traders who engage in day trading or scalping, with the goal of making quick profits over a short period of time. Many of these are retail businesses or individuals with modest to medium net worth. LTHs, on the other hand, are traders who have committed to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy for at least six months. Many of these entities represent wealthy individuals or major corporations, especially in the age of Bitcoin ETFs.
According to recent data, the LTH’s realised market capitalisation movement showed a positive net value of $3 billion, as it did in December 2023. The Bitcoin realised cap equals the sum of all realised profits minus realised losses. In other words, the total value of Bitcoin onchain has increased, while capital has decreased due to losses.
BTC miner’s selling pressure flatlines
Bitcoin miners have been selling BTCs on exchanges as their net flow has reduced in Q2 2024. However, the selling pressure has subsided over the last two weeks, as miners’ reserves began to show signs of a shift back towards accumulation. The chart reveals that the miner’s selling pressure lessened dramatically in August, implying that BTC may stabilise in its present price range before next month.
Stablecoin Supply Ratio leans bullish
One of the primary optimistic arguments for Bitcoin has been the growing worldwide liquidity, namely the global M2 money supply. Similar to global liquidity, the stablecoin supply ratio, or SSR, reflects the amount of liquidity available in the form of stablecoins that may be used to purchase Bitcoin. SSR is defined as the ratio of the overall crypto market capitalisation to the combined market capitalisation of all stablecoins. A lowering ratio implies that the supply of stablecoin is increasing while the market cap is declining, implying that more liquidity is available to purchase assets.
The SSR ratio is currently down to levels seen in early February 2024, indicating that there is enough of liquidity in the market, which could spark a surge. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, also noted the similar trend, stating that the overall stablecoin market capitalisation had reached a new all-time high of $165 billion. He went further: “This implies higher liquidity in the crypto markets.”
BTC price nears “ChoCH” level above $62K
Following a poor weekly closing, Bitcoin has seen a positive recovery, returning 4.50% in the last two days. At the present, Bitcoin is attempting to break above a downward expanding channel pattern, which could have bullish ramifications.
However, Bitcoin confronts heavy resistance just above the pattern around $61,700. A confluence of the 50-day and 100-day EMAs is also at that price point, implying that it may continue to resist a bullish breakout.
If Bitcoin can break above the EMAs’ collective resistance around $61,700, a bullish reversal will be verified if it goes above $62,737. In September, this can result in a market signal known as “ChoCH” or “Change of Character,” which indicates a trend reversal.
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