Unrealised profits in Bitcoin reach extraordinary levels, while investors’ risk appetite remains subdued due to macroeconomic and policy uncertainty. 

Bitcoin’s price has risen 50% from its April lows, reaching an all-time high of around $112,000 on May 23 amid fresh market momentum. In the background, a crucial Bitcoin statistic has quietly reached a level that has historically predicted big market turning points. While the data shows that holders have unrealised gains, analysts advise caution. 

UTXO Profitability Reaches Critical Level

Bitcoin’s price has risen 50% from its April lows, reaching an all-time high of around $112,000 on May 23 amid fresh market momentum. In the background, a crucial Bitcoin statistic has quietly reached a level that has historically predicted big market turning points. While the data shows that holders have unrealised gains, analysts advise caution. 

When nearly all holders are waiting on gains, it indicates heightened bullish sentiment, which can lead to either sustained rallies or severe corrections.

While the 99% level is traditionally regarded as a sign of strength, CryptoQuant argued that the current macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the Trump administration’s probable policy orientation, make it difficult to infer that true market euphoria has come. As a result, investors remain unwilling to embrace risk completely. 

As a result, the research noted that if this statistic continues to drop, it may suggest that unrealised profits are declining. That scenario might lead to further profit-taking among early investors and drive latecomers – those who purchased near recent highs – to sell at a loss, potentially increasing downside momentum. 

Short-Term Buyer Fatigue

Glassnode also identified a troubling trend, citing “signs of cooling momentum.” In its most recent update, the platform noted that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) decreased by 25.1%, while net spot demand fell, indicating potential short-term buyer fatigue.

In futures markets, open interest and financing rates rose, indicating increased speculative activity. Despite this, Glassnode stated that the Perpetual Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) going lower indicates increasing sell-side pressure and increased caution among traders. Options data showed a mixed picture: while the 25-Delta Skew stayed constant, increased open interest and a wider volatility spread could indicate hedging or profit-taking. 

Liquidity conditions improved, aided by higher unrealised earnings and increased activity from short-term investors. Meanwhile, a tiny increase in the short-to-long-term holder (STH/LTH) supply ratio, combined with a minor drop in the Realised Profit-to-Loss ratio, indicated dampened exuberance over the weekend. On-chain fundamentals indicated a small reduction in active addresses, indicating a slowing in user activity after a time of high engagement.

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