Bitcoin (BTC) volatility hovering within 6% of record low levels
Before the June 7 price drop, Bitcoin’s volatility during the previous 15 days was in “the bottom 6% of occurrences.”Bitcoin’s price changed so little in the 15 days preceding the dramatic drop on June 7 that it approached historic lows seen throughout all 15-day periods in Bitcoin’s history.
According to Swan Bitcoin’s chief investment officer, Rapha Zagury, the period from May 24 to June 7 was among the “bottom 6% of occurrences” for volatility.
“The horizontal blue line represents the latest 15-day rolling volatility of 23%. “It certainly looks close to the lower level,” Zagury explained in a June 7 post on X, noting the extended period when Bitcoin $69,657 was “stuck in a range.”
According to CoinMarketCap statistics, Bitcoin’s price fell by 3.33% to $69,264 after trading within a 7% range of $66,936 to $71,656 over the previous 15 days. The drop came after the US Employment Situation Summary Report showed greater job growth than predicted, implying that the US Federal Reserve may not lower inflation rates on June 11 – a frequently watched parameter for Bitcoin price projections by analysts in recent times. Bitcoin is currently trading at $69,246.
However, Zagury highlighted the outcomes of Bitcoin’s price during previous periods of similarly low volatility or lower. Over the next 30 days, the average return stood at 20.95%, with the minimum return declining a further 32.06%, while the maximum return was 218.40%.
The outcomes are even more significant when viewed over 365 days following previous similar low-volatility periods. Although the minimum return for this period is 55.59%, the average return is 820.82%. Zagu reiterated that though it isn’t any indication of the future, he just believes there is “value in learning from the past.”
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