According to research from the Bitcoin-only exchange River, more Lightning usage will play a significant role in Bitcoin becoming a superior medium of exchange. According to data from the Bitcoin Foundation, the Layer 2 Lightning Network has grown by an estimated 1,212% in two years, with roughly 6.6 million routed transactions in August, a huge increase from the 503,000 transitions in August 2021.
River research researcher Sam Wouters explained in an Oct. 10 study that the increase in routed transactions — which employ more than two nodes to accomplish a transfer — occurred despite a 44% drop in Bitcoin’s price and significantly decreased online search activity.”Nobody is using Lightning’ should now be a dead meme,” Wouters remarked in a follow-up X (Twitter) post on Oct. 10, referring to Lightning sceptics. River’s estimation of 6.6 million for Lightning routed transactions is a lower-bound estimate — the smallest potential value it can determine. The firm also derived the 503,000 figure for August 2021 from a 2021 study by K33, formerly Arcane Research, and stated that it could not evaluate private Lightning transactions or those between only two individuals.
“This will be an interesting metric to monitor,” he said. “It is an indicator of Bitcoin becoming more of a medium of exchange.” The average Lightning transaction size in August 2023 was roughly 44,700 satoshis, or $11.84. In September, River predicted that between 279,000 and 1.1 million Lightning users were active. The gaming, social media tipping, and streaming sectors accounted for 27% of the transaction increase, according to the business. River stated that the Lightning payments success rate on its platform in August 2023 was 99.7% across 308,000 transactions. The main reason for failure arises when no payment route with sufficient liquidity to permit the transfer can be established. The River data collection included 2.5 million transactions.