There is a less than 3% chance of an outright SEC victory in the Ripple case, according to a pro-XRP lawyer

According to attorney John Deaton, Ripple has a 25% probability of winning outright against the Securities and Exchange Commission. Simultaneously, rumors of a Ripple IPO circulate. As the long-running dispute comes to a finish, pro-XRP lawyer John Deaton believes the US Securities and Exchange Commission has a less than 3% chance of winning outright.

The founder of CryptoLaw has been a vocal backer of Ripple in its battle with the SEC, which filed a lawsuit against the company in December 2020, alleging that the sale of its XRP token constituted an unregistered securities offering.

Deaton projected on the June 3 episode of The Good Morning Crypto podcast that presiding the U.S. The district judge would rule in Ripple’s favor outright, with a 25% chance that Ripple would win based on his “splitting the baby” ruling.

This refers to Judge Torress potentially ‘drawing a line in the sand’, in which she could rule that XRP was sold as an unregistered security prior to 2018. However, in the aftermath of the Hinman documents — which pertain to internal SEC messages connected to a 2018 lecture given by former SEC Director William Hinman — cryptocurrencies may be able to shift from securities to commodities once sufficiently decentralized.

According to Deaton, even if [Judge Torres] rules that Ripple violated the law, it does not extend to secondary market sales. While Ripple officials, including CEO Brad Garlinghouse, have long predicted an end to the SEC’s rollercoaster case, Deaton stated that Judge Torres will most likely make a definitive ruling before September 30 of this year.

Deaton drew attention to a “six-month list” that district judges must submit to Congress. The list contains information on all summary judgments that have been outstanding for more than six months. It is released on the last day.

Deaton also predicted the price of Ripple’s native XRP coin in the event of a favorable decision. There is no doubt that somewhere between $2 and $10 is a reasonable amount.” Deaton told Cointelegraph on May 22 that the Ripple community should keep an eye on June 13, when investors will find out if XRP was discussed “between SEC staff prior to the Hinman speech.” There is a good chance that the Hinman materials will be unsealed on this day, so it could prove to be a crucial day in the Hinman case.

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