Analysts Eye September for Potential Bitcoin(BTC) Breakout Despite Recent Retreat

The Bitcoin price fell again today, but analysts predict that markets will still make a breakout later this year. Bitcoin prices fell to an intraday low of $65,563 on July 30, representing a 6% drop from the start of the week. The asset rallied to $66,000, but failed to maintain that level, falling below it during the Wednesday early Asian trading session. Nonetheless, Bitcoin markets are in a five-month rangebound channel, and many believe they will break out to the upside in the coming months.

When Bitcoin Breakout?

On July 30, cryptocurrency analyst ‘Rekt Capital’ stated, “Bitcoin is still on track for a September breakout.” “History suggests that a breakout from the re-accumulation range a mere 100 days after the halving was always going to be unlikely,” he said of the current scenario.

In the previous cycle, the breakout happened approximately 160 days after the halving, so if history repeats itself, this would happen in September.

Furthermore, the previous cycle peak occurred late the following year, implying that there will be no top until Q4 2025. Trader Bob Loukas reinforced the view in a post on X on July 30, forecasting a “solid breakout to all-time highs for Bitcoin” by September 15. 

Another Market Catalyst

September 18 also has a very important Federal Reserve meeting scheduled, which is expected to result in a rate cut for the first time since early 2020. According to CME Group, the probability of a rate drop in September is 85.8%.

A decrease in interest rates is often beneficial to high-risk assets such as cryptocurrency since borrowing becomes less expensive, market liquidity grows, and risk appetite rises due to lower yields from interest on capital.

There is also a Fed meeting today, July 31, where policymakers will discuss monetary policy. However, it is widely expected that the US central bank would hold interest rates unchanged, at 5.25% to 5.50%. 

Markets appear to have already priced this in, as crypto assets and big tech equities fell this week. The total crypto market capitalization has fallen 2% since the start of the week, reaching $2.47 trillion at the time of writing.

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