Bitcoin ETFs could soon cross 1Million BTC as traders expect November tailwinds
Spot Bitcoin ETFs must produce an average of $301 million in net inflows per day to reach their targets this week. As traders prepare for anticipated crypto tailwinds in November, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) might reach a total holding of 1 million Bitcoin as early as this week.
These tailwinds include the US election, the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut, and Russia relaxing its Bitcoin mining ban in November.
The US spot Bitcoin BTC $68,453 ETF issuers presently hold 976,893 Bitcoin valued over $66.2 billion, accounting for about 5% of Bitcoin’s $1.34 trillion market capitalization, according to Apollo and SoSoValue.
It will require an average of $301 million in daily net inflows this week.
Bitcoin analyst Alessandro Ottaviani noted that $3 billion has flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the last two weeks alone, adding that Bitcoin has frequently surged several months after a halving event — the most recent of which occurred in April 2024 — while the outcome of the Nov. 5 US presidential election could also serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin rallied nearly 43% in November 2020 as a result of the May 2020 halving event and President Joe Biden’s victory — and similar price movements are likely to occur again, regardless of who wins, according to CK Zheng, the chief investment officer of crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital.
According to Apollo Capital’s chief investment officer, Henrik Andersson, the “biggest deciding factor” on whether the crypto market rallies is a Donald Trump triumph.
“If he wins, we believe the resulting momentum in risk assets will drive Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of the year,” Andersson told Cointelegraph on Tuesday. “If that were to happen, Bitcoin would have set a decisive new ATH and make big headlines around the world.”
Since November 2020, Bitcoin has only had larger monthly gains in December 2020 and February 2024 – the first full month after the spot Bitcoin ETFs were released.
Some of the recent gains can be credited to academic institutions, with Atlanta-based Emory University reporting over $15.1 million in the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, according to an Oct. 25 filing with the US securities regulator.
The US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee is set to convene on 6 and 7, with CME Group’s Fedwatch tool predicting a 94.7% possibility that interest rates will fall 25 basis points.
Rate decreases frequently relieve common consumers’ financial constraints and have a favorable impact on the markets, at least in the short term. Meanwhile, Russia eliminating its Bitcoin mining restriction on November 1 has been considered as a positive move for Bitcoin, as it increases network decentralization and security. For now, Bitcoin is trading at $67,700, failing to break through.
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