Ripple Legal Risks Mount, Price Dips Below $2.20; Bitcoin Slides to $104k

• The SEC’s silence on Ripple during its final 2025 closed meeting pushed XRP towards the $2 threshold. 
• A resolution is critical; failure to deal may result in fresh SEC and Ripple appeals. 
• On May 30, XRP plummeted to $2.1337, underperforming despite the overall weakening in the crypto market.

XRP Extends Losing Streak as Legal Uncertainties Intensify

Court filings have added a new layer of uncertainty to the ongoing SEC v. Ripple case, pushing XRP to its lowest price point since May 8. Bill Morgan, a pro-crypto attorney, highlighted a recent court document submitted by a third party claiming to possess “data and information” that could serve as crucial evidence in resolving key issues tied to a decade of regulatory turmoil faced by U.S. investors. Meanwhile, the XRP community and crypto market participants had expected the SEC to submit a revised motion seeking an indicative ruling to lift the ban on XRP sales to institutional investors and reduce the proposed $125 million penalty.

On May 15, Judge Analisa Torres denied the SEC’s request for an indicative ruling, citing procedural flaws and a failure to make a compelling case that the settlement conditions benefit the public and institutional investors.

Bill Morgan mentioned the court deadline for the SEC to provide a status report on efforts towards a settlement. On April 16, the US Court of Appeals allowed a combined motion to keep the appeal in abeyance (pending) for 60 days.  

SEC Appeal Withdrawal Crucial for XRP-Spot ETF Approvals

A settlement could prove critical in resolving the case. Ripple may file a cross-appeal if the courts refuse to lift the injunction and reduce the penalty. If Ripple proceeds, the SEC may file an appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP judgement. Judge Torres previously determined that such sales did not satisfy the third element of the Howey Test. According to the SEC’s Meeting and Events page, the final closed meeting for 2025 took place on Thursday, May 29. The lack of transparency around the Ripple lawsuit may add to the legal concerns, potentially driving XRP below $2. 

XRP Price Outlook: Legal Risks in Focus

XRP declined 1.32% on Thursday, May 29, following Wednesday’s 1.85% loss, to close at $2.2445. The coin outperformed the overall market, which fell 2.58% to a crypto market capitalisation of $3.29 billion. However, on Friday, May 30, XRP remained under pressure, falling to $2.1337 before stabilising.

Legal rulings and spot ETF developments will determine the near-term price trajectory for XRP. A move above $2.50 would target $2.6553. A sustained breach over $3 would put the record high of $3.5505 within reach. 

US Appeals Court Decision Sinks BTC

While legal uncertainty weighed on XRP, US trade events impacted bitcoin (BTC) demand on May 29. The US Court of Appeals reinstated President Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, which impacted risk assets. Significantly, the court decision rekindled fears about the US-China trade war, which might exacerbate US inflationary pressures and destabilise the global economy.

On May 29, US economic statistics revealed potential fissures in the economy. Initial unemployment claims increased from 226,000 (week ending May 17) to 240,000 (week ending May 24). Rising unemployment may slow wage growth and consumer expenditure, which account for more than 60% of US GDP.

US BTC-Spot ETF Market Sees Outflow Surge

On Thursday, May 29, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw a sharp increase in net outflows, sending bearish signals. According to Farside Investors, key flows included:

• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) experienced a net outflow of $166.3 million.
• Greyscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) had a net outflow of $107.5 million. 
• ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) announced net outflows totalling $160 million. 

Excluding BlackRock’s (BLK) pending iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) flows, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw overall withdrawals of $471.8 million, potentially breaking the ten-day inflow trend. 

BTC Price Outlook: The Fed, Legislation, and ETF Trends

BTC fell 2.01% on May 29, adding to Wednesday’s 1.03% drop, to close at $105,662.

The near-term view is based on US economic statistics, Fed policy signals, legislative updates, trade developments, and ETF inflows. On Friday, May 30, the US Personal Income and Outlays Report will highlight significant inflation patterns and whether tariffs have raised prices. Higher prices and weaker labour market conditions increase the danger of stagflation. 

Potential scenarios:

• Bearish Scenario: Rising trade tensions, higher US inflation, legislative obstacles, hawkish Fed language, and ETF outflows could all push Bitcoin below $100,000.
• Bullish Scenario: Reduced trade friction, bipartisan support for crypto laws, a dovish Fed, lower US inflation, and ETF inflows could propel BTC to a record high of $111,917. 

The Market Structure Bill and the Bitcoin Act are two key pieces of legislation. The fate of the Bitcoin Act may depend on the success of the Market Structure Bill. The Bitcoin Act proposes that the US government acquire one million bitcoins over five years, with a mandated 20-year retention period.

Crypto-asset investments are high-risk; you may lose your capital